Our figure of the month 01/2017: Outlook 2017


2016 is expected to end with a real growth rate of GDP of 1.9%, which is nearly the upper bound of the GWS-outlook of January, 2016. This growth rate was mainly caused by very dynamic domestic consumption expenditures – induced by both, private and public demand. Only weak growth rates of gross fixed capital formation and mutual outbalancing development of ex- and imports prevented a stronger GDP growth rate.


2017 is going to be a year of decisions. It is not only Germany that is going to vote for a new parliament – elections will also take place in France and in the Netherlands Also in 2017, some decisions from 2016 are going to get precise: In January 2017, Donald Trump will become US president. It is than to see, whether his campaign pledges and his announced economic stimulus package are going to be realized. Furthermore, Great Britain is likely to decide by March 2017 how to handle the BREXIT decision.

Despite of all these unknowns to come up in 2017, the GWS-outlook for 2017 is optimistic. The scope of GDP growth lies between 1.75% and 2.00% – like last year. The decisive factor for this continuously positive outlook is the strong domestic demand – albeit with a slower dynamic due to increasing price levels. The upper bound of the outlook is defined – among others – by the positive net lending/net borrowing of the state which offers enough room for government investments (e.g. in education, integration or security).

Demographic change, digitization and world trade are going to be three important topics that are going to coin year 2017. The GWS is active in all these research areas and is obliged to contribute the upcoming discussions in various projects, publications and at different conferences.

Other figures can be found here.

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