Evidence-Based Support for Adaptation Policies in Emerging Economies.
Großmann, A., Heinisch, K., Lutz, C., Schult, C., Hohmann, F. & Banning, M. (2023): Evidence-Based Support for Adaptation Policies in Emerging Economies. Low Carbon Economy 14, pp. 1–16. DOI: 10.4236/lce.2023.141001.Abstract
Climate change is increasingly evident, and the design of effective climate adaptation policies is important for regional and sectoral economic growth. We propose different modelling approaches to quantify the socio-economic impacts of climate change on three vulnerable countries (Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Vietnam) and design specific adaptations. We use a Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model for Vietnam and an economy-energy-emission (E3) model for the other two countries. Our simulations until 2050 show that selected adaptation measures, in particular in the agricultural sector, have positive implications for GDP. However, some adaptation measures can even increase greenhouse gas emissions. Focusing on GDP alone can lead to welfare-reducing policy decisions.
Keywords
Climate Change, Climate Adaptation, GDP Growth, Sectoral Loss, Country Models
