BMAS-Expert Monitoring: Development of an analytic tool to forecast the supply and demand of skilled workers in Germany
The QuBe project team (www.qube-projekt.de) has been commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) to develop an analytic tool that provides a reliable assessment of the future development of both the demand for skilled worker and the available supply. This analytical instrument is intended to identify demographic, qualificational and regional mismatches in the labour market at an early stage and to point out spheres of activity. The effects of institutional, operational and societal change are additionally determined by scenario calculations.
Methodologically, the project is based on the macroeconometric input-output model INFORGE, which was extended to include a labour market model for the QINFORGE model. This labour market module differentiates according to occupations, qualifications, requirements and in future also according to competences. Not only the results of the population projection of the IAB and the educational model of the BIBB are included, but also data sets such as the National Accounts (VGR), the Microcensus and the employment history are linked to form a consistent data set.
In 2018, the first BMAS-forecast and a BMAS-scenario will be available for the national level.
In 2019, the results from 2018 will be regionalized and reported for 50 labour market regions.
In 2020, an update of the BMAS-forecast and two supplementary BMAS scenarios at national and regional level will follow.