Im Forschungsprojekt werden in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) der RWTH Aachen und dem Institut für ökologische Wirtschaftsforschung (IÖW) die Rolle, Funktion und die sozial-ökologischen Potenziale privater Haushalte für eine dezentrale Energiewende untersucht. Zentrales Ziel ist es, aufzuzeigen, in welchen neueren technischen und marktbezogenen Entwicklungen private Haushalte potenziell eine wichtige Rolle für das Energiesystem spielen können. Darüber hinaus sollen die Wechselwirkungen zwischen den verschiedenen energierelevanten Themen und ihren Auswirkungen auf das Verhalten der Haushalte analysiert werden. Die GWS ist innerhalb des Projektes hauptverantwortlich für die Erweiterung bzw. Präzisierung des makroökonometrischen Modells PANTA RHEI, das zur Erfassung der Haushalte als "Prosumer" um unterschiedliche Haushaltstypen erweitert wird. Die Projektlaufzeit endet im März 2016.
The aim of this project is to develop a manual for practitioners to guide them in conducting ex-ante impact assessment studies. The manual describes the procedural and analytical steps necessary to perform impact assessments and introduces and describes different macroeconomic models that exist to carry out policy impact assessments and forecasting.
Increasing energy efficiency leads to additional demand for construction, renovation and modernization work. These are positive economic incentives, if the services are provided and produced domestically. In this project, the employment effects of such energy efficiency measures for Israel were estimated. Decisive are the national energy efficiency plans as well as further energy efficiency plans and measures. As a result of COP21, the government added to the budget for measures to support energy efficiency significantly. The estimate of the impact on employment is based on economic estimates, relating to statistical data (input-output tables and national accounts). Overall, more than 5,500 people found employment after the initial efficiency plan and nearly 9000 by the new plans.
The aim of the project for the German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy is to assess the impacts of electricity price exemptions for electricity intensive industries such as chemicals, iron and steel, aluminium, copper, paper and textiles.
The global model GINFORS-E – that comprises the economy at a detailed industry level, energy balance and energy prices – is used to model the economic interactions between European and Non-European countries. The impacts of higher energy costs can be analysed on GDP, employment and foreign trade by country.
Four scenarios are developed: A referenced ex-post (2007–2013) scenario shows the actual, historical development including exemptions from the EEG surcharge for energy-intensive industries. This scenario is compared to a Counter-Factual ex-post scenario without exemptions. Additionally, two ex-ante (from 2014 on) scenarios are compared. One of them includes the German EEG amendment with exemptions for energy-intensive industry, the other scenario not.
All analyses at the different levels lead to the same result: existing exemptions for energy-intensive companies support the competitiveness of the industry and have positive macroeconomic effects.
Die Beratung von Entscheidungsträgern beim Thema Klimawandel bedarf aufgrund der unterschiedlichen Betroffenheiten der Regionen in Deutschland Informationen auf regionaler und lokaler Ebene. Ziel des Projektes war die Analyse einer möglichen Integration von regionalen Erdsystemmodellen und sozioökonomischen Modellen mit dem Fokus auf Deutschland und seine Regionen. Die GWS analysierte in diesem Rahmen die Wirkung von Klimawandel und Klimaanpassung auf nationaler Ebene (für die Pilotbereiche Energie, Gesundheit und Tourismus) wie auch auf regionaler Ebene.
The federal state North-Rhine-Westphalia, the most populated in Germany, is currently developing a climate protection plan. Wuppertal Institute has developed the physical framework in a participative framework together with working groups of the most relevant stakeholders (industry, transport, households and utility companies). The impact assessment evaluates impacts of the climate protection strategies on energy security, the environment, social aspects and the economy. A particular focus lies on the evaluation of employment effects. GWS contributes economic modelling results regarding the overall economic effects and employment effects by economic sector.
Directorate General Climate Action of the European Commission (DG CLIMA) commissioned Ricardo-AEA Ltd (Ricardo-AEA) and Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) to develop and investigate the use of consumption-based emissions accounting methodologies for policy assessment. Global warming impacts (in kg or tonnes of CO2eq) are measured on a territorial basis. A complementary approach is to assign emissions to goods, so that the emissions travel with them as they are traded globally. The emissions are then allocated to the country in which the goods are consumed. Consumption-based emissions can be estimated in two distinctly different ways. A life-cycle assessment (LCA) reveals the environmental impacts of a product at each stage of its life-cycle (bottom-up). In contrast, a top-down assessment starts with a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model, in this case GWS’s Global Resources Accounting Model, GRAM. In terms of which technique is better for quantifying consumption-based emissions, we found that the answer is policy-specific. Approaches are rather complementary. The MRIO approach allows for allocating territorial emissions to final consumption at an aggregated industry level. Principal Policy Conclusions: Some of the increasing consumption in the EU was satisfied by production located in non-EU regions. The rise of the "emerging economies" producing for satisfying the new EU demand therefore explains why "consumption based" approaches estimate an increase in the emissions related to EU consumption. Overall, and most importantly, global mitigation action is the key to reduce consumption-based emissions.
Bisherige Studien zu Teilmärkten der Green Economy und zu einzelnen umweltpolitischen Maßnahmen zeichnen ein eher positives Bild der Beschäftigungschancen. Umfangreichere Analysen, die auch die Gewinner und Verlierer einer Maßnahme unter Berücksichtigung regionaler und sektoraler Wirkungen untersuchen, liegen aktuell nicht vor. Gerade in einem schnellwachsenden Wirtschaftsbereich müssen jedoch derartige Analysen regelmäßig und zügig den neuen Kostenstrukturen und Veränderungen auf den Weltmärkten angepasst werden. Wenig untersucht ist bisher auch die Frage, welche Beschäftigungschancen in Deutschland sich aus den weltweiten Anstrengungen zur Verbesserung des Umwelt- und Klimaschutzes ergeben. Hier gilt es die weltweiten Entwicklungen auf den Zukunftsmärkten für „grüne“ Produkte zu beleuchten und unterschiedliche Szenarien für die Exportchancen deutscher Anbieter zu entwickeln.
GRETCHEN investigates the impact of climate, renewable energy and innovation policies (the "policy mix") on technological and structural change in renewable power generation technologies. GRETCHEN uses an innovative research design based on three pillars: the combination of environmental and innovation economics, a multi-method approach and an integrated analysis on three empirical levels. These three are: a micro-level, which examines the influence of the policy mix on company-internal invention, innovation and diffusion; a meso level, which addresses the impacts on innovation networks and market structures; and a macro level, which derives macroeconomic statements by endogenizing technological change. The project results and the derived policy recommendations for designing the policy mix are addressed to decision-makers from academia, politics and industry.
GWSs contribution to GRETCHEN is the analysis of the impacts of the policy mix on technological change, welfare (economic development and employment), trade and structural change using the global macroeconomic, input-output model GINFORS. This requires the following steps:
- 1. Identify the effects of the policy mix on innovation and hence on technological change.
- 2. Quantify the effects of technological change on the model parameters and variables.
- 3. Analyze the resulting effects on the economy.
The first step will be based on the results of the analyses in work packages 1, 2 and 3, where the policy mix is defined and the effects on the micro and meso levels are analyzed. For the second step, GINFORS will be extended to include endogenous technological change. The renewable power generation sector has to be modeled in more detail, the industrial sectors that are part of the supply chain of renewable power generation technologies have to be identified and the effects of the changing technology have to be endogenized. The subsequent policy scenario analysis of step three will indicate the possible effects of the policy mix on welfare, trade and structural change.
Based on the GreenTech 3.0 atlas, developed by Roland Berger, and additional analysis in the project environmental and economic impacts of different technologies and market potentials have been assessed in this project for the German Federal Environmental Agency. A case study looks into impacts of different car technologies such as plug-in and hybrid. Different scenarios have been developed with the PANTA RHEI model. The study concludes with several recommendations for fostering green markets in the future.