PANTA RHEI is an extended version of macroeconometric simulation and forecasting model INFORGE, designed for analysing questions in the environmental economics field. The name, a quotation from the Greek philosopher Heraclites, means “everything flows” and sums up our approach perfectly. It models long-term structural change in economic development and in environmental-economic interdependencies. In addition to comprehensive economic modelling with our core INFORGE model, it also models energy consumption, air pollution, transport and land use and housing to a high level of detail.
Links between model components are consistent. The transport module, for example, models fuel consumption in litres, which, multiplied by the price per litre, feeds into input demand from the manufacturing sector and demand for consumer goods. Changes to fuel tax rates result in changes to tax receipts and a broad range of economic adaptation processes.
However, changes in fuel prices also lead to changes in behaviour, which are also considered in our model. The model is resolved with full interdependence, meaning that the effects of a policy measure disseminate to all model variables simultaneously, and no effects are lost.
PANTA RHEI incorporates a multitude of macroeconomic variables drawn from various official statistics, in particular national and environmental-economic accounts (including input-output account) and provides sector-by-sector information on 63 industrial sectors. It also incorporates energy balances (including satellite balances for renewable energy) and German Federal Environment Agency emissions data.
The model has been used for a variety of purposes in recent years, including the 2010 Energy Scenario, to identify the net employment effects of renewable energy and to provide the basis for the progress report on energy transition monitoring.
Selected Publications
Projects
- Cornerstones of a sustainable welfare model as a basis for environmental policy descision makers
- Materialeffizienz und Ressourcenschonung (MaRess)
- Weiterentwicklung des PANTA RHEI-Modells
- Approaches for further development of public finances
- Sektorale ökonomische Modellierung zur Integration in eine regionale Erdsystem-Modellierung – CSC Sektorale Modellierung
- Impact Assessment of the climate protection plan in North-Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
- Weiterentwicklung des PANTA-RHEI-Modells
- Macroeconomic effects of the Energy Transition
- Energiewende and international aspects – opportunities and challenges for German politics and industry
- Private Haushalte als Schlüsselakteure einer Transformation des Energiesystems: Empfehlungen für eine sozial-ökologisch orientierte Förderpolitik. Teilvorhaben 3: Gesamtwirtschaftliche Modellierung
- Energiereferenzprognose
- Update energiewirtschaftliches Gesamtkonzept für Bayern
- Beschäftigungschancen auf dem Weg zu einer Green Economy – szenarienbasierte Analyse von (Netto-)Beschäftigungswirkungen
- Ökonomische Fragen des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien
- Analyse der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte des Energiemarkts
- Volkswirtschaftliche Bewertung von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen und -instrumenten
- Potentials and risks of green future markets
- Wirkungen des Ausbaus Erneuerbarer Energien (Impact of Renewable Energy Sources)
- Green Economy: Measuring sustainable welfare using System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) data
- Ökonomie der Anpassung an den Klimawandel
- Employment from renewable energy in Germany: expansion and operation – now and in the future
- Vernetzung von Klimaszenarien mit weiteren Szenarien aus dem ökologischen und gesellschaftlichen Bereich
- Energy scenarios for the German energy concept
- Grundlagen und Eckpunkte für ein energiewirtschaftliches Gesamtkonzept für Bayern
- Prüfmodule für die Gesetzesfolgenabschätzung (GFA) – Workshops und Machbarkeitsstudien zur Nutzung von PANTA RHEI in der GFA
- Entwicklung und Bereitstellung des Anwendermodells PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung der Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Maßnahmen und Instrumente
- Technological, ecological, economic and strategic aspects of the national climate change initiative (NKI)
- Die ökologischen und ökonomischen Wirkungen eines nachhaltigen Konsums in Deutschland
- Energiepolitische Optionen
- Kosten und Nutzen Erneuerbarer Energien
- Study on Tax Reform in Europe over the next decades: implication for the environment, for eco-innovation and for household distribution
- Short and long term labour market effects of an increase of renewable energy
- Analyse und Modellierung der Energieverbrauchsentwicklung
- Macro economic and distributional effects of the German Energiewende
- Detailed economic analysis of individual policy instruments and measures for climate change adaptation
- Integrated sustainability assessment and optimization of energy systems