PANTA RHEI is an extended version of macroeconometric simulation and forecasting model INFORGE, designed for analysing questions in the environmental economics field. The name, a quotation from the Greek philosopher Heraclites, means “everything flows” and sums up our approach perfectly. It models long-term structural change in economic development and in environmental-economic interdependencies. In addition to comprehensive economic modelling with our core INFORGE model, it also models energy consumption, air pollution, transport and land use and housing to a high level of detail.
Links between model components are consistent. The transport module, for example, models fuel consumption in litres, which, multiplied by the price per litre, feeds into input demand from the manufacturing sector and demand for consumer goods. Changes to fuel tax rates result in changes to tax receipts and a broad range of economic adaptation processes.
However, changes in fuel prices also lead to changes in behaviour, which are also considered in our model. The model is resolved with full interdependence, meaning that the effects of a policy measure disseminate to all model variables simultaneously, and no effects are lost.
PANTA RHEI incorporates a multitude of macroeconomic variables drawn from various official statistics, in particular national and environmental-economic accounts (including input-output account) and provides sector-by-sector information on 63 industrial sectors. It also incorporates energy balances (including satellite balances for renewable energy) and German Federal Environment Agency emissions data.
The model has been used for a variety of purposes in recent years, including the 2010 Energy Scenario, to identify the net employment effects of renewable energy and to provide the basis for the progress report on energy transition monitoring.
Selected Publications
- Die Modelle ASTRA und PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente - ein Vergleich.
- Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Maßnahmen: Abschätzungen mit zwei ökonometrischen Modellen.
- Integrated Multidimensional Sustainability Assessment of Energy System Transformation Pathways.
Projects
- Weiterentwicklung des PANTA RHEI-Modells
- Materialeffizienz und Ressourcenschonung (MaRess)
- Cornerstones of a sustainable welfare model as a basis for environmental policy descision makers
- Energiepolitische Optionen
- Short and long term labour market effects of an increase of renewable energy
- Kosten und Nutzen Erneuerbarer Energien
- Grundlagen und Eckpunkte für ein energiewirtschaftliches Gesamtkonzept für Bayern
- Die ökologischen und ökonomischen Wirkungen eines nachhaltigen Konsums in Deutschland
- Technological, ecological, economic and strategic aspects of the national climate change initiative (NKI)
- Entwicklung und Bereitstellung des Anwendermodells PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung der Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Maßnahmen und Instrumente
- Prüfmodule für die Gesetzesfolgenabschätzung (GFA) – Workshops und Machbarkeitsstudien zur Nutzung von PANTA RHEI in der GFA
- Energy scenarios for the German energy concept
- Vernetzung von Klimaszenarien mit weiteren Szenarien aus dem ökologischen und gesellschaftlichen Bereich
- Employment from renewable energy in Germany: expansion and operation – now and in the future
- Ökonomie der Anpassung an den Klimawandel
- Green Economy: Measuring sustainable welfare using System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) data
- Wirkungen des Ausbaus Erneuerbarer Energien (Impact of Renewable Energy Sources)
- Analyse der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte des Energiemarkts
- Potentials and risks of green future markets
- Volkswirtschaftliche Bewertung von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen und -instrumenten
- Ökonomische Fragen des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien
- Beschäftigungschancen auf dem Weg zu einer Green Economy – szenarienbasierte Analyse von (Netto-)Beschäftigungswirkungen
- Energiereferenzprognose
- Private Haushalte als Schlüsselakteure einer Transformation des Energiesystems: Empfehlungen für eine sozial-ökologisch orientierte Förderpolitik. Teilvorhaben 3: Gesamtwirtschaftliche Modellierung
- Energiewende and international aspects – opportunities and challenges for German politics and industry
- Macroeconomic effects of the Energy Transition
- Weiterentwicklung des PANTA-RHEI-Modells
- Impact Assessment of the climate protection plan in North-Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
- Sektorale ökonomische Modellierung zur Integration in eine regionale Erdsystem-Modellierung – CSC Sektorale Modellierung
- Approaches for further development of public finances
- Study on Tax Reform in Europe over the next decades: implication for the environment, for eco-innovation and for household distribution
- Update energiewirtschaftliches Gesamtkonzept für Bayern
- Analyse und Modellierung der Energieverbrauchsentwicklung
- Detailed economic analysis of individual policy instruments and measures for climate change adaptation
- Macro economic and distributional effects of the German Energiewende
- Integrated sustainability assessment and optimization of energy systems
- Costs of Climate Change Impacts in Germany