This study analyses the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the heating transition (“Wärmewende”) using a scenario analysis within the macroeconomic model PANTA RHEI. An updated energy module is linked to an expanded investment and technology assumption set for heat pumps and district heating in order to quantify impacts on GDP and sectoral employment for the period 2030 to 2045.

The model extensions explicitly represent the technological transition in the building sector: for heat pumps, a stock‑flow approach is implemented that accounts for equipment stock, replacement dynamics, and annual installation limits. For district heating, technology‑specific heat generation pathways and network expansion logics are integrated, including replacing fossil energy carriers with large‑scale heat pumps, geothermal energy, and power‑to‑heat. Electricity and heat demand are modeled separately on a technical and accounting basis.

The analysis compares two transformation pathways of the heating transition—low and high ambition—with a reference scenario. In the high‑ambition scenario, the strongest employment effects occur in 2030: high investment pressure, accelerated heat‑pump deployment, and intensive district‑heating expansion generate clearly positive impacts in construction, industrial intermediate‑goods sectors, and planning and technical services (+5 thousand persons compared to the reference).

In the low‑ambition scenario, the largest deviations emerge only in 2035. Delayed investment dynamics reduce employment by 7 thousand persons, particularly in construction, manufacturing, and business services. Systemic feedback effects from lower investment on consumption and intermediate demand amplify these impacts. While some service‑oriented sectors show positive deviations, these do not offset the aggregated negative employment effects.

Overall, the analysis shows that the heating transition enables limited but robust sectoral adjustments and opens economically viable transformation pathways, with the distribution of transition burdens differing over time: high ambition generates short‑term peaks with sectoral shifts but leads to earlier and more stable sectoral adjustment. Low ambition postpones burdens and creates stronger medium‑term pressures. The key systemic difference arises from the interaction of the investment path, the heat‑pump installation cap, and the speed at which district‑heating networks are decarbonized and expanded.

The heating transition is a central policy field on the path to climate neutrality. An ambitious expansion has positive macroeconomic effects, supported by higher investment and reduced fossil‑fuel imports. Future work will integrate the national results into the regional economic model RIMES to derive regional employment, income, and value‑added impacts at the district level. Through the “Info‑EW” project dashboard, these findings will be made accessible to regional decision‑makers, supporting the evidence‑based evolution of local and regional strategies.
 

Hembach-Stunden, K., Stöver, B. & Ulrich, P. (2025): Transformation der Wärmeversorgung – modellgestützte Analyse mit PANTA RHEI. GWS Discussion Paper 2025/ 2, Osnabrück.

The publication is part of the project "Info-EW: Data-based information systems for local decision-makers to assess the social and economic impact of the energy transition and structural change".