The last twelve years have been characterized by strong demand for German goods and services and, as a result, for labor, despite a shortage of unemployed workers.

On the supply side, the number of people in employment has risen during this period (42.3 million (2013) – 45.9 million (2024)). The number of unemployed persons has fallen (2 million (2013) – 1.5 million (2024)), but this has still not been enough to meet demand.

What other traces has this phase of persistent labor shortages left behind, apart from the coining of the term?

Statistics on newly concluded employment contracts (statistics from the Federal Employment Agency) show in which economic sector (WZ 08 divisions) a new employment relationship subject to social insurance contributions was established and in which economic sector the person concerned was previously employed. This allows us to deduce the pattern of change in the economic sector and also the main employer/employee industries. It also reveals how high the barriers to changing sectors are.

The degree of self-sufficiency, which forms the diagonal on the matrix of industry-to-industry changes, is very revealing in this regard. It describes job changes within the same industry, including changes from company A to B, new employment after training, or the extension of a fixed-term employment contract. In 2023, there were approximately 10.5 million new employment relationships.

The self-sufficiency rate has fallen continuously since 2013, with the exception of 2020 (black). What initially appears to be a decline in industry loyalty is more accurately described as a flexibilization of the labor market, as the barriers to change have been lowered, in some cases out of necessity, due to high and difficult-to-meet demand.
 

Sectors with persistently high barriers (red) exist in healthcare, as certain qualifications are mandatory there. Industries that have become more open (green) include logistics and warehousing, energy supply, glass and ceramics manufacturing, and stone and earth processing – all of which are industries that have seen a sharp rise in demand as a result of online shopping, the energy transition, and the construction boom.

Typical economic sectors with previously high levels of external recruitment (yellow/orange) include mining, leather and textile manufacturing, pollution control and other waste disposal, repair of IT equipment, and personal services.

The catering and retail sectors can be classified as “sponge industries.” Due to temporary employment contracts and internal company/position changes, they have a medium degree of self-sufficiency, but also a high inflow and outflow to other areas.
 

Other figures can be found here.