Since 2022, the construction industry has been caught between low order numbers due to high construction and financing costs and the continuing high demand for additional living space. In May of this year, the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Planning, and Regional Development (BBSR) predicted an annual demand for approximately 320,000 new homes per year until 2030 in its housing demand forecast. In addition, the finishing trade in particular plays a decisive role in the successful achievement of the targets set out in the Climate Protection Act. As a result, even in times of a weak construction market, the majority of companies plan to maintain their workforce levels, and the issue of skilled labor shortages continues to hamper the activities of many companies. In addition, there was encouraging news from the Federal Statistical Office in May: order intake in the construction industry grew by 5.3% compared to May 2024.

Our figure of the month for August looks at how well the construction industry is equipped to deal with the future shortage of skilled workers. One indicator of this is the current ratio of employees to apprentices. If the ratio is 2.5, those employed in the industry would have to work for an average of around 40 years to keep the number of employees constant in the future. If the ratio is lower, employees would theoretically have to work longer to keep the number of employees constant, and if it is higher, shorter working hours would theoretically be possible.

Below, we will first look at the development of employment figures in the construction industry before turning our attention to the number of apprentices in the building and finishing trades. Finally, we will calculate and present the ratio of apprentices per 100 employees at both the federal and state levels.Looking at the nationwide development of employment figures in the construction industry in recent years, the picture initially appears positive. An evaluation of the national accounts of the federal states (VGRdL) showed growth of around 8.1% at the federal level for the period from 2014 to 2024. In 2014, around 2.4 million people were employed in the construction industry, and in 2024 around 2.62 million. At the state level, the development was uneven. While, for example, Schleswig-Holstein (+19.3%), Hamburg (+20.8%), and Berlin (+15.3%) recorded high percentage increases in the period under review, the number of people employed in the construction industry continued to decline in Saxony (-10.1%), Saxony-Anhalt (-12.6%), and Thuringia (-12.1%).

A recent analysis of apprentice statistics from the German Confederation of Skilled Crafts (ZDH) as part of our Figure of the Month revealed a total decline of 5.5% in the number of apprentices in the construction and finishing trades nationwide between 2014 and 2024. While in 2014, just under 57,500 young people nationwide were still doing an apprenticeship in one of the building and finishing trades, by 2024 the figure had fallen to around 54,300. Although this development runs counter to the rising employment figures in the construction industry, it is in line with the trend of declining training figures in the skilled trades in general. In 2014, around 371,000 young people were still pursuing an apprenticeship in a skilled trade, but ten years later, the figure was only around 342,100. The development in the number of apprentices in the construction and finishing trades also varied at the federal state level. While the eastern federal states – e.g., Saxony (+49.1%), Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (+56.5.3%), and Thuringia (+48.9%) – very high percentage increases were recorded in the period under review, the development of apprentice numbers in the western federal states – e.g., Bavaria (-16.2%), Rhineland-Palatinate (-15.9%), and Saarland (-24%)—declined significantly in some cases.

Let us now consider the ratio of people employed in the construction industry to apprentices in construction and finishing trades as an indication of how well the industry is prepared for the future shortage of skilled workers.[1] In 2024, there were around 2.62 million people employed in the construction industry in Germany and 54,300 apprentices in the relevant skilled trades. This results in a ratio of 2.1 apprentices per 100 employees.
 

The figure shows the regional distribution of the indicator by federal state. In Schleswig-Holstein (2.9), Saarland (2.8), and Bremen (2.7), for example, the situation appears to be favorable for addressing the shortage of skilled workers. In Thuringia (1.6), Saxony-Anhalt (1.4), and Saxony (1.6), the ratio is currently even worse despite positive developments in apprenticeships, and regionally based construction companies will tend to find it more difficult to maintain the number of employees in the future.
 

Other figures can be found here.