New Paper published on macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy sectors of southern European islands
This paper presents a model-based assessment of the macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy of Southern European islands for different climate scenarios until the end of the century. Climate change impact chains on tourism, maritime transport, and electricity demand are considered.
Our findings show important economic losses in all climatic scenarios, yet economic damages under an RCP8.5 scenario more than doubled compared to a RCP2.6 pathway. Magnitudes of impacts vary across islands, depending on the level of economic diversification and geographic remoteness. The effects of climate change on the tourism sector are detrimental to the islandic economies, given the sector’s complex value chain and dominant position in value added. Similarly, increasing electricity demand for cooling and water desalination puts additional stress on the economy of the islands.
This paper was written within the framework of the project SOCLIMPACT – “Downscaling climate impacts and decarbonisation pathways in EU Islands, and enhancing socioeconomic and non-market evaluation of Climate Change for Europe, for 2050 and beyond”.