Our figure of the month 02/2016: Immigration will decrease in the long run
The balance of migration (number of persons immigrating to Germany less number of persons emigrating from Germany) is the most flexible factor in the determination of population development. The current wave of refugees is increasing the inflow of people from other countries. However, refugees only determine one part of total immigration to Germany. Most of the immigrants (especially refugees) leave the country in the same or in the year following their arrival. Emigrants are not further considered here.
To estimate long-term immigration to Germany, reasons for emigration (demographic, political and socio-economic reasons) were assigned to 154 countries and their emigration probability share to Germany was estimated.
Immigration to Germany will be decreasing by approx. 9 % within the coming 15 years. This development comes along with a significant structural change that is envisaged regarding the country-specific composition of immigration: While the immigration from European countries is likely to decline due to an ageing society and an economic upswing in those countries, especially immigration from African nations and the Middle East is likely to increase because of sustaining political instability and the demographic development in these countries.
The calculations are based on the data from the Central Register of Foreign Nationals (Ausländerzentralregister - AZR) 2014 and the UN World Population Prospects 2015. As soon as the new data from the AZR is released, the immigrant numbers from 2015 can be incorporated in the calculations.
Other figures can be found here.
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