Estimating long-term immigration to Germany


The team of Economic and Social Affairs has tried to find a way to improve the estimation of long-term immigration to Germany. The new modelling aproach considers immigration differentiated by countries, age and sex and includes different motives for migration. First results indicate a reduction in immigration by 8.5 % until 2035 mainly driven by the demographic development in European countries. However, the migration from politically or economically challenged countries in Africa or Middle East will continue to increase. The complete findings are available in German language in the GWS Discussion Paper 16/1.

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