A new, component-based model for energy consumption prices has been implemented in the national PANTA RHEI model, enabling a systematic breakdown into procurement costs, energy, CO₂ and VAT, as well as network charges for electricity and gas. This methodological extension allows for a nuanced analysis of the differing tax frameworks applicable to industry, commerce, trade and services (GHD), as well as households. Whilst businesses, for example, can deduct VAT as input tax, households bear the full tax burden. The disaggregated modelling thus provides an improved basis for analysing and evaluating policy measures as well as short-term price shocks.

For the purposes of analysing fuel prices, the crude oil price shock used in this analysis is based on the assumptions regarding a temporary global rise in oil prices set out in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook (April 2026). The reference path without a price shock is based on the assumptions of the STEPS scenario from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2025. A comparison of the price paths reveals significant short-term price increases, particularly for diesel, as well as a greater relative burden on industry and the GHD compared to households. With the assumed normalisation of global energy prices, these differences will decrease significantly by 2030. Comparisons with observed petrol station prices suggest that remaining discrepancies are primarily attributable to logistics, refining and operating costs at petrol stations that are not explicitly modelled.
 

Hembach-Stunden, K., Fehnker, D. & Lutz, C. (2026): Energiepreismodellierung in PANTA RHEI: Kraftstoffpreise im Fokus.
 GWS-Kurzmitteilung 9/2026, Osnabrück.