Black swans (risks) in the energy transition

The energy transition is a long-term transformation of the German energy system. With the time horizon the probability of rare and unforeseen, but powerful incidents increases. In the project the impact of these kinds of black swans on the energy transition are analyzed. The focus is on different risk categories (economy, policy, climate and environment, infrastructure etc.) applying qualitative (ia.a expert interviews) and quantitative methods. Political and economic options for reaction and preventation are identified and assessed.

Nieters, A., Flaute, M., Lutz, C., Kirchner, A., Ess, F., Heinrich, S., Kemmler, A., Koziel, S., Piégsa, A., Straßburg, S., Hecking, H., Paschmann, M., Peter, J., Schweter, H. & Weiser, F. (2016): Black Swans (Risiken) in der Energiewende. Risikomanagement für die Energiewende. Studie, im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie, Basel, Köln, Osnabrück.