PANTA RHEI

National macroeconometric simulation and forecasting model for analyzing environmental economic research questions 

PANTA RHEI is a national, macroeconometric simulation and forecasting model for analyzing environmental economic research questions. The economic core is based on the INFORGE model, which models long-term intersectoral structural change in economic development using input-output tables. In addition, PANTA RHEI extends the economic correlations with energy and emissions modeling and links them consistently with each other so that interactions between the economy and energy consumption and the associated carbon emissions are captured in the model. Economic effects of climate change and adaptation are also considered. 

The historical database of the model is derived from a wide range of macroeconomic and sectoral data based on official statistics. The energy balances of the Working Group on Energy Balances and the emissions data of the German Environment Agency supplement the database. All behavioral parameters are estimated econometrically on the basis of these historical time series from 1991 to the present. The model is solved iteratively year by year and is generally constructed bottom-up, i.e. it is first calculated at sectoral level and then aggregated in the macroeconomic variables. 

PANTA RHEI has been applied in a variety of scenario analyses in recent years. In the context of the German energy transition, it was used to calculate the macroeconomic effects and for the socio-economic impact assessment of the NECP. The model has also been used in various projects to calculate the macroeconomic effects of climate change and adaptation to climate change. PANTA RHEI is regularly used to measure the net employment effects of renewable energies and the transition to a green economy. In a project on rebound effects, various sets of policies such as carbon taxes in the non-ETS sector with a reduction in the EEG levy, an increase in energy tax rates and efficiency funding in industry were examined. Other applications deal with the transition to electromobility and the distributional effects of environmental policy instruments. Various subsidies, support programs such as for building renovations and levies can also be analyzed in the model.

PANTA RHEI-model

Projects

Impacts of climate change, climate mitigation and climate adaptation on the macroeconomic development in Germany
The contribution of economic instruments to achieving climate mitigation targets: The role of government energy price components in the instrument mix
Climate action as an employment driver – Effects of an ambitious transition towards a green economy on the labour market
"BEniVer": Accompanying research for the funding initiative "Energy Transition in Transport": developing options for research, development, production, and market launch of alternative fuels
Integrated sustainability assessment and optimization of energy systems
Reconsidering the Role of Energy and Resource Productivity for Economic Growth, and Developing Policy Options for Capping Macro-Level Rebound Effects
Costs of Climate Change Impacts in Germany
Socio-economic scenarios as basis for vulnerability analysis for Germany
Energy Projections and Impact Assessment 2030
Macro economic and distributional effects of the German Energiewende
Green Economy: Measuring sustainable welfare using System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) data
Macroeconomic effects of the Energy Transition
Energiewende and international aspects – opportunities and challenges for German politics and industry
Employment from renewable energy in Germany: expansion and operation – now and in the future
Energy scenarios for the German energy concept
Short and long term labour market effects of an increase of renewable energy
Technological, ecological, economic and strategic aspects of the national climate change initiative (NKI)
Entwicklung und Bereitstellung des Anwendermodells PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung der Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Maßnahmen und Instrumente
Detailed economic analysis of individual policy instruments and measures for climate change adaptation
Approaches for further development of public finances
Potentials and risks of green future markets
Sectoral economic modelling for integration into regional Earth system modelling – CSC Sectoral Modelling
Wirkungen des Ausbaus Erneuerbarer Energien (Impact of Renewable Energy Sources)
Study on Tax Reform in Europe over the next decades: implication for the environment, for eco-innovation and for household distribution