PANTA RHEI
National macroeconometric simulation and forecasting model for analyzing environmental economic research questions
PANTA RHEI is a national, macroeconometric simulation and forecasting model for analyzing environmental economic research questions. The economic core is based on the INFORGE model, which models long-term intersectoral structural change in economic development using input-output tables. In addition, PANTA RHEI extends the economic correlations with energy and emissions modeling and links them consistently with each other so that interactions between the economy and energy consumption and the associated carbon emissions are captured in the model. Economic effects of climate change and adaptation are also considered.
The historical database of the model is derived from a wide range of macroeconomic and sectoral data based on official statistics. The energy balances of the Working Group on Energy Balances and the emissions data of the German Environment Agency supplement the database. All behavioral parameters are estimated econometrically on the basis of these historical time series from 1991 to the present. The model is solved iteratively year by year and is generally constructed bottom-up, i.e. it is first calculated at sectoral level and then aggregated in the macroeconomic variables.
PANTA RHEI has been applied in a variety of scenario analyses in recent years. In the context of the German energy transition, it was used to calculate the macroeconomic effects and for the socio-economic impact assessment of the NECP. The model has also been used in various projects to calculate the macroeconomic effects of climate change and adaptation to climate change. PANTA RHEI is regularly used to measure the net employment effects of renewable energies and the transition to a green economy. In a project on rebound effects, various sets of policies such as carbon taxes in the non-ETS sector with a reduction in the EEG levy, an increase in energy tax rates and efficiency funding in industry were examined. Other applications deal with the transition to electromobility and the distributional effects of environmental policy instruments. Various subsidies, support programs such as for building renovations and levies can also be analyzed in the model.

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