In view of the high demand for skilled labour, the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth (BMFSFJ) is striving for quantitative monitoring of skilled labour in child day care and child and youth welfare professions. The feasibility of this project and possible applications of monitoring are to be discussed in advance.

The aim is to present the employment situation for workers in child daycare and child and youth welfare in detail, to assess future scenarios in the long term and to identify macroeconomic effects. The qualification and occupational projections of the QuBe project, which are also used for the skilled labour monitoring of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) and for the skilled labour monitoring of the Federal Ministry of Health (BMG), are suitable for this purpose.

The need to monitor the number of skilled staff arises not only from the existing shortage of skilled staff, but also from the foreseeable increase in demand for nursery teachers - due to the legal entitlement to a childcare place or the expected population growth, among other things. Population forecasts (see map) also illustrate a differentiated development of future child numbers. While there has been a clear east-west divide in recent years, the trend in the future is likely to follow a more urban-rural pattern - particularly in the under-6 age group. These regional shifts in the future need for skilled labour in child daycare and other areas of child and youth welfare underline the urgency of a detailed monitoring system.

Population projection of the under-6s - years 2023 to 2033

Source: Zika, G.; Hummel, M.; Maier, T.; Wolter, M. I. (2023b): The QuBe project: models, modules, methods. 1st ed. Ed. by Institute for Employment Research (IAB). Bielefeld (IAB Library, 374). Available online, last checked on 26/10/2023