False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices.

Hembach-Stunden, K., Vorlaufer, T. & Engel, S. (2024): False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices. Q Open, 2024, 4, 1–22.

Abstract

Facing climate change, seasonal forecasts, and weather warnings are increasingly important to warn the public of the risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals’ responsiveness in the long run. Using an online experiment, we assess how false alarm and missed alarm-prone forecast systems influence individuals’ adaptation behaviour. We show that exposure to false alarm-prone forecasts decreases investments if a warning is issued (the ‘cry-wolf effect’). Exposure to missed alarm-prone forecasts increases adaptation investments if no warning, but also if a warning has been issued. Yet, individuals exposed to both false and missed alarm-prone forecasts still adjust their adaptation investments depending on the forecasted probability of extreme climate conditions. Individuals with missed alarm-prone forecasts are, however, less sensitive to the forecasted probability if a warning has been issued. In case of low probability warnings, overshooting investments in adaptation hence becomes more likely.