Climate Protection Scenarios until 2050 Considering CO2 Price Differences and Carbon Leakage. Final Technical Report.

Lutz, C., Banning, M., Paroussos, L., Fragkiadakis D. & Vrontisi, Z. (2025): Climate Protection Scenarios until 2050 Considering CO2 Price Differences and Carbon Leakage. Final Technical Report. Technical report on the modelling results within the project "Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU ETS and of a CBAM". Climate Change 75/2025, https://doi.org/10.60810/openumwelt-8242.

Abstract

Climate Protection Scenarios until 2050 Considering CO2 Price Differences and Carbon Leakage - a Quantitative Model Comparison

Two models with different model philosophies are used to quantify the socio-economic effects of global GHG reduction scenarios. One model GEM-E3 is a general computable equilibrium model that follows neoclassical theory, the other model GINFORS-E is a macroeconometric model that follows a post-Keynesian approach. This technical report describes the methodical work to make both models largely consistent and subsequently apply four “exploratory” scenarios that do not refer to any particular policies but focus on different global ambition levels. First, a common harmonisation scenario assuming no substantial global climate protection is developed, which is used to calibrate the two models so that the model results correspond as closely as possible. For this purpose, the different databases and the model results for key results on population, economic growth, energy consumption and energy related GHG emissions are described. The subsequent exploratory scenarios cover a benchmark scenario and three global GHG reduction scenarios with global carbon prices with which the 2° and 1.5° targets can be achieved. In a further, modified 2° scenario, the EU achieves its climate targets from the “fit for 55” package in 2030 and 2050, while the rest of the world implements slightly less ambitious climate protection so that overall the global 2° target is reached. The results of the models are compared for important variables for selected countries and regions.