On behalf of European Commission (Europe Aid/129527/C/SER/RU “Support to the development of new generation models to estimate and forecast GHG emissions and efficiency of Russian climate change mitigation measures and policy”) and in cooperation with ICF and Plejades, GWS mbH developed a Russian macroeconomic model. The model “e3.ru” shows the development of the Russian economy, environmental aspects (energy supply and demand, land-use especially forest model) and the development of greenhouse gas emissions until 2050.
The newly developed model for Russia is based on the GWS national macroeconomic model philosophy INFORGE with a focus on the "three e's" economy, environment and emissions. The model "e3.ru" is used for estimation and forecasting GHG emissions of Russian Climate Change mitigation measures and policies with different aspects (energy efficiency, development of renewable energy, CO2 tax).
GWS provides an user-friendly and customized graphical interface in English and also in Russian language including the model documentation (incl. handbook how to calculate and analyze climate policies independently) as well as an information system containing variables, equations and regression coefficients.
In einem Literaturreview für das Umweltbundesamt (UBA) wurden die möglichen Kopplungen von sozioökonomischen, Umwelt- und Klimamodellen zusammengestellt. Dabei wurden verschiedene Modelltypen diskutiert, mit deren Hilfe sozioökonomische und umweltbezogene Aspekte in mehr oder minder integrierter Form untersucht werden
On behalf of the South African INFORUM partner Conningarth, GWS has worked on the development of an economic model for South Africa.
Within this project conducted for the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, the institutes Prognos, Basel, ewi, Cologne (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universität zu Köln) and GWS have developed energy scenarios for the future energy concept of the Federal Government with a time line until the year 2050. In total, eight scenarios were calculated with a variation in the prolongation of the operating time of existing nuclear power stations in Germany for 4, 12, 20 or 28 years and with different approaches regarding the cost of backfitting.
The target scenarios indicate the preconditions and terms under which a long-term shift of the energy market towards a regenerative energy supply is possible. The GWS model PANTA RHEI was employed to determine the macroeconomic effects of different scenarios against a reference setting.
The results of the project KONSENS shows the energy and CO2 reduction potential that can be reached by consumer-oriented policy measures, but also looks at their effectiveness and social implications. In order to conduct this analysis, the integrated environment-energy-economy model e3.at was used and extended by different types of households. Energy related policy measures were analysed with regard to their energy efficiency as well as their social impacts on different population groups. Stakeholders and experts were invited to participate in the project by taking part in several workshops. Special importance were given to the public and scientific dissemination of the results.
The aim of the project was to further develop an existing econometric modeling tool to carry out scenario analyses. For this purpose, the macro-econometric model PANTA RHEI has been updated and adjusted for the Federal Environmental Agency (UBA). The client is now possible to perform simulations and evaluate economic developments and policies independently. The user-friendly interface “IMAGINE” enables the user to get an overview of modeling aspects and displays model variables in graphs and/or tables as selected. Furthermore, standardized routines convert the data into excel spreadsheets.
Measures for climate protection and efficiency increase do not only directly lead to reduced impacts on the environment and less energy imports but also have various direct and indirect economic effects. On the one hand there are direct demand changes, on the other hand costs of financing increase. In the long run the investments reduce energy demand and lower the cost of production for companies or increase the scope of spending of private households. The establishment of lead markets also creates export potentials if other countries follow this path. Within this study, the options for efficiency increase and climate protection in Germany are comprehensively analysed with respect to their technical and economic potential, the groups of stakeholders addressed, the chances for export and the gaps in the political instruments. Moreover, the economic effects of an ambitious efficiency strategy are modelled.
Zusammen mit der Prognos AG, Basel und dem Energiewirtschaftlichen Institut an der Universität zu Köln (EWI) bewertet die GWS verschiedene Optionen für eine sichere, wirtschaftliche und umweltgerechte Energieentwicklung in Deutschland. Die im Rahmen des Auftrages zu bearbeitenden Fragestellungen weisen, soweit sie bereits definiert sind, eine inhaltlich weite Bandbreite auf. Für die noch zu definierenden Fragen dürfte das ebenso zutreffen. Das erfordert auf Seiten der Bearbeiter entsprechende energiepolitische, energiewirtschaftliche und gesamtwirtschaftliche Vorkenntnisse, Erfahrungen, Datensätze und Modelle.
Im Auftrag des Bundesumweltministeriums (BMU) sind die verschiedenen Kosten- und Nutzenwirkungen des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien analysiert und quantifiziert worden (Beschäftigungseffekte, Differenzkosten, Merit-Order-Effekt, Importverminderung etc.). Darüber hinaus ist ein Analyse-Rahmen für eine Zusammenschau dieser qualitativ oftmals recht unterschiedlichen Effekte entwickelt worden. Ein wesentliches Element des Vorhabens ist die Kommunikation und Distribution der Ergebnisse an die Fachöffentlichkeit und politische Entscheidungsträger gewesen.
The impacts on employment of an increased use of renewable energy have been assessed in the short and long run. Special focus was set on gross employment in the sectors production of plants for using renewable energy, operation and service of this sector and supply of bio fuels. In the long run, net effects for the total economy including employment have been calculated with the macro-econometric model PANTA RHEI taking negative effects like substitution and budget effects into account. The simulation model integrates energy, environmental and economic aspects in a consistent modeling framework. The model PANTA RHEI serves as a base for quantifying the effects of a business-as-usual scenario and different scenarios of a more ambitious use of renewable energy.