The project SOCLIMPACT aims at defining climate change impact-chains and low carbon transition pathways in European islands for 2050 and beyond, and analyzing their corresponding macro-economic and non-market consequences for Europe.
Firstly, climate impact projections for islands will be developed. The project will take into account the relationship between CC and biophysical impacts, according to each island’s specificities and vulnerability indicators. Secondly, the assessment of the socio-economic impacts in four key areas of the EU Blue Economy (aquaculture, coastal and maritime tourism, fisheries and maritime transport) will be done.
Finally, the project will rank and map low carbon and adaptation solutions, according to each island´s particularities and CC scenarios.
1. To develop a thorough understanding on how climate change will affect the EU islands, given their specific vulnerability compared to continental Europe.
2. To provide consolidated data and knowledge with a cross-sectorial perspective on the socio-economic costs of different climate change scenarios for 2050 and beyond, for EU islands and the spill-over effects on the EU Blue Economy.
3. To validate a new methodology for the estimation of the economic value of non-market consequences of CC as well as the non-market benefits of climate mitigation and adaptation actions for Europe.
4. To identify and rank the more appropriate low-carbon transition pathways and risk management strategies for each EU Island, according to different climate change scenarios.
5. To deliver, through innovative technological support tools, downscaled recommendations to policy makers and practitioners in order to foster the desired transition.
The BMBF funded 3-year project focuses on the phenomenon that, despite the fact that significant progress in efficiency was achieved in the past 40 years, the overall consumption of energy and resources did not proportionately reduce. This might be due to macroeconomic rebound effects. But the consumption levels might have been also caused by other determinants of economic growth. Firstly, the project aims at an understanding of the relation between macroeconomic rebound effects and those other determinants of economic growth. It aims moreover to support the theoretical knowledge by statistical estimation of their significance for the energy and resource consumption (System knowledge). The second goal of the project is to develop political measures and instruments which effectively curtail macroeconomic rebound effects and which influence drivers of economic growth, and to examine their environmental and economic consequences (Orientation knowledge). Thirdly, the project aims at a development of politically feasible and rebound-proof instruments for the reduction of resource consumption in a close collaboration with non-scientific stakeholders within a
Policy Innovation Lab (Transformation knowledge).
Within the EU framework of national energy and climate plans (NECP), there is a current need for projections and impact assessments for the further development of the energy system until 2030 and 2050 respectively.
The basis for this will be provided by scenario work, which will be comprehensively evaluated and its consequences for the energy system as well as socio-economic and ecological consequences evaluated. These scenarios will be supplemented by variants and sensitivity calculations and discussed in an extensive consultation process. The project is carried out by a consortium of FhG ISI, GWS and IINAS led by Prognos AG.
The economic side of the energy system transformation in Germanyis often discussed in a shortened form along the lines of cost burdens and additional expenses. The transformation of the energy system and the exploitation of the potential for increasing energy efficiency, however, open up additional growth opportunities for suppliers of energy technology goods. The opportunities for all companies involved in energy technology goods and services and exporting - or importing - these goods have so far not been intensively examined and described. In this context, plants for electricity and heat generation from renewable energies and for increasing energy efficiency represent technologically sophisticated products that therefore fit well with the supply profile of German industry. The production of these plants is based on complex domestic and international value chains, so that imports and exports of energy technology goods have an influence on the German economy that has so far been insufficiently quantified. For an exporting nation, this knowledge gap is astonishing and the project is intended to close it both definitively and with data.
The main goal is the development of an energy-economy model e3.dz for Algeria and to enable Algerian partners to use the model for the projection and analysis of economic effects from the long-term development of the Algerian energy system under different scenarios. Three scenarios will be defined and implemented in the model 3e.dz regarding renewable energy deployment: business-as-usual, renewables high ambition, and renewables moderate ambition. Two other scenarios will quantify energy efficiency improvement. Training of the national partners includes model application.
The economic opportunities associated with the development of renewable energy are a strong argument to motivate and support RE deployment. GWS has contributed decisively to method development both in Germany and internationally. Algeria aims to increase RE's share of the electricity mix to 27% and its installed capacity to 37% by 2030. Since 2015, 20 solar parks (photovoltaic) with a total installed capacity of 343 megawatts (MW) have been put into operation. In the period from 2016 to 2020, solar or RE power plants with a total capacity of 4,000 MW are to be built. To estimate the employment effect of this development path in Algeria, the following steps are planned:
1. Estimate of jobs to be created under the RE projects in Algeria until 2030 (gross, net, direct, indirect)
2. Estimation of the contribution to the development of the service sector (SMEs, jobs)
3. Identification of RE technologies to be prioritized from the point of view of job creation
Vulnerability to the effects of climate change has been assessed in a cross-sectoral assessment for the first time for Germany in 2015. Regions and systems have been identified that are particularly exposed to climate change, i.e. which are vulnerable. Data of climate research have been mixed with sectoral and socio-economic data. An update is scheduled for 2021. GWS is developing three socio-economic scenarios as in input on behalf of the Federal Environmental Agency. Firstly, scenarios are quantified on national level with the macroeconomic model PANTA RHEI. In a next step the national modelling is transferred to the level of districts (NUTS 3). Finally, land use data and socio-economic parameters are projected until 2035.
The project analyses renewable energy value chains in Lebanon. Based on a literature review and interviews on the ground, the most important technologies for Lebanon will be selected against the background of future viability, value for money and employment potential and a data-driven value added and employment analysis will be carried out for them.