In the project "Unpacking climate Impact Chains - a new generation of climate change risk assessments" (UNCHAIN), GWS explores methodological options to advance state of the art climate change adaptation assessments. In the past, such studies were often carried out as individual sector analyses. Since cross-sectoral impacts and interrelations cannot be systematically assessed in individual sector analyses, corresponding studies are not able to adequately reflect the macroeconomic impacts of the analysed climate phenomena and adaptation measures. Integrated economic modelling approaches are generally in a position to map corresponding effects appropriately. However, so far, they have been applied much less frequently to assess climate adaptation measures. Based on a literature review of current integrated climate adaptation studies, GWS develops theoretical proposals for the further development of corresponding simulation approaches. Specific implementation possibilities are then examined in selected case studies by means of practical applications of the GWS simulation models PANTA RHEI and GINFORS.
The overall research approach of the project puts heavy emphasis to the concept of co-production of knowledge: Impact chains (ICs) will be developed in order to structure and evaluate the impact factors analysed in individual case studies. ICs are based on a conceptual model consisting of risk components according to the IPCC AR5 concept (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and underlying factors. The systematic visualisation of the interaction of these risk components as ICs facilitates a structured discussion of main causalities considered within the respective case studies (within the project team as well as with other stakeholders).
UNCHAIN is part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by the JPI Climate and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR/BMBF (D), AEI (ES) and ANR (FR) and co-financed by the European Union (funding code 776608). The project is managed by the West Norwegian Research Institute (WNRI, Sogndal) & Ramboll France (TEC, Aix en Provence) in collaboration with eight European partners.
Die Entwicklung der Bioökonomie ist mit nationalen und internationalen Nachhaltigkeitszielen eng verknüpft. Die EU als großer Importeur von Produkten der Land- und Forstwirtschaft muss dabei auch die globalen Auswirkungen des eigenen Handelns bei der Politikgestaltung berücksichtigen. Zielkonflikte sind absehbar, wenn erwartete Entwicklungen verschiedener Bereiche übereinandergelegt werden. Datensätze und Modelle, die diese Zielkonflikte erfassen können, weisen noch verschiedene Schwachpunkte auf. Im Rahmen von BEST werden zwei globale Makromodelle, die auf unterschiedlichen Datensätzen und Theoriehintergründen beruhen, eingesetzt. Sie werden um ein detailliertes Partialmodell ergänzt, das Produktion, Handel und Nachfrage einzelner Gütergruppen der Bioökonomie erfasst. Außerdem werden der globale Landnutzungswandel und die Effektivität der Landnutzungs-Governance betrachtet.
Auf dieser Basis werden die folgenden Fragestellungen detailliert beleuchtet:
1. Welche potentiellen Entwicklungspfade gibt es für die Bioökonomie in der EU mittelfristig (2030) mit Blick auf die regionale und globale Erreichung der SDGs und Erwartungen in verschiedenen Nutzungsbereichen sowie langfristig (2050/60) vor dem Hintergrund der Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) und Klimaziele?
2. Welcher Beiträge und welche Zielkonflikte für die Erreichung der sozio-ökonomischen und ökologischen SDGs (2, 6-9 und 12-15) in Europa und weltweit ergeben sich aus diesen Entwicklungspfaden?
3. Welche Auswirkungen haben einzelne isolierte nationale Politikmaßnahmen (einschließlich EU) der Förderung und Regulierung von Bioökonomie gegenüber koordinierten globalen Mechanismen? Welche Möglichkeiten und Grenzen ergeben sich daraus, um die Entwicklung einer nachhaltigen Bioökonomie zu steuern, die einen möglichst hohen Grad der Zielerreichung gewährleistet? Das Vorhaben ist in fünf Arbeitspakete untergliedert. Für den Austausch mit nationalen und internationalen Experten sind zwei Workshops vorgesehen.
The accompanying scientific research project "BEniVer" comprehensively analyses the development of alternative fuels. The aim is to network the 15 technical research projects of the funding initiative with more than 100 participating research groups and industrial partners, to exploit synergy potentials and to make the project results comparable. The project focuses on interdisciplinary analyses of technical, environmental, economic, and social impacts.
The accompanying research is conducted by six research institutions under the direction of the German Aerospace Center on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. In particular, GWS will work on the industrial and macroeconomic evaluation of various options.
The aim of this research project is to analyse the impacts of target species, climate policy implementation and international cooperation within the framework of the Paris Climate Change Agreement and the currently available national reduction contributions (Nationally determined contributions - NDCs) as well as within the framework of possible and necessary increases in ambition to achieve long-term climate protection goals (1.5°C).
The analyses will focus on international interrelations that are discussed in the context of the European Emissions Trading System under the heading of carbon leakage. By analysing given scenarios with different models (GEM-E3 and GINFORS_E), the project should also provide essential information on the "influencing factor model".
The project will be conducted by GWS together with E3-Modelling and Prof. Andreas Löschel for the German Enviroment Agency until mid 2021.
What are the consequences for the labour market if measures are taken to prevent from climate change and/or to adapt to climate change?" This is the central question to be answered within a project - commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection in Austria. Various climate policy measures (e.g. energy-efficient building refurbishment, switch to public transport) are analysed with regard to their impact on labour demand and CO2 savings. The e3.at (economy-energy-environment) model for Austria of the GWS is used to calculate the scenarios and to quantify the (socio-)economic, energetic and environmental consequences up to the year 2030.
The project is carried out jointly with Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) from Austria.
The political debate on sustainable energy supply is currently narrowing largely to a climate protection at justifiable costs for citizens and industry discussion. With this focus, numerous sustainability aspects such as resource requirements, social acceptance or emissions in the lifecycle of new technologies are ignored which the National Strategy of the Federal Government should bear in mind, striving for a transformation towards a sustainable energy system.
The main objective of the project is therefore the creation of a new generic modeling and evaluation environment for energy scenarios in which the technical-structural development paths of the energy system are analyzed, evaluated and multicriterially optimized on the basis of various economic, societal and environmentally relevant model-based targets.
The project explores and develops scientific basis for a systemic monitoring and modelling of the bioeconomy (BE) in Germany. The three year project, led by University of Kassel, is sponsored by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Detailed information can be found here.
The project SOCLIMPACT aims at defining climate change impact-chains and low carbon transition pathways in European islands for 2050 and beyond, and analyzing their corresponding macro-economic and non-market consequences for Europe.
Firstly, climate impact projections for islands will be developed. The project will take into account the relationship between CC and biophysical impacts, according to each island’s specificities and vulnerability indicators. Secondly, the assessment of the socio-economic impacts in four key areas of the EU Blue Economy (aquaculture, coastal and maritime tourism, fisheries and maritime transport) will be done.
Finally, the project will rank and map low carbon and adaptation solutions, according to each island´s particularities and CC scenarios.
1. To develop a thorough understanding on how climate change will affect the EU islands, given their specific vulnerability compared to continental Europe.
2. To provide consolidated data and knowledge with a cross-sectorial perspective on the socio-economic costs of different climate change scenarios for 2050 and beyond, for EU islands and the spill-over effects on the EU Blue Economy.
3. To validate a new methodology for the estimation of the economic value of non-market consequences of CC as well as the non-market benefits of climate mitigation and adaptation actions for Europe.
4. To identify and rank the more appropriate low-carbon transition pathways and risk management strategies for each EU Island, according to different climate change scenarios.
5. To deliver, through innovative technological support tools, downscaled recommendations to policy makers and practitioners in order to foster the desired transition.
The BMBF funded 3-year project focuses on the phenomenon that, despite the fact that significant progress in efficiency was achieved in the past 40 years, the overall consumption of energy and resources did not proportionately reduce. This might be due to macroeconomic rebound effects. But the consumption levels might have been also caused by other determinants of economic growth. Firstly, the project aims at an understanding of the relation between macroeconomic rebound effects and those other determinants of economic growth. It aims moreover to support the theoretical knowledge by statistical estimation of their significance for the energy and resource consumption (System knowledge). The second goal of the project is to develop political measures and instruments which effectively curtail macroeconomic rebound effects and which influence drivers of economic growth, and to examine their environmental and economic consequences (Orientation knowledge). Thirdly, the project aims at a development of politically feasible and rebound-proof instruments for the reduction of resource consumption in a close collaboration with non-scientific stakeholders within a
Policy Innovation Lab (Transformation knowledge).
Within the EU framework of national energy and climate plans (NECP), there is a current need for projections and impact assessments for the further development of the energy system until 2030 and 2050 respectively.
The basis for this will be provided by scenario work, which will be comprehensively evaluated and its consequences for the energy system as well as socio-economic and ecological consequences evaluated. These scenarios will be supplemented by variants and sensitivity calculations and discussed in an extensive consultation process. The project is carried out by a consortium of FhG ISI, GWS and IINAS led by Prognos AG.