In the project "Unpacking climate Impact Chains - a new generation of climate change risk assessments" (UNCHAIN), GWS explores methodological options to advance state of the art climate change adaptation assessments. In the past, such studies were often carried out as individual sector analyses. Since cross-sectoral impacts and interrelations cannot be systematically assessed in individual sector analyses, corresponding studies are not able to adequately reflect the macroeconomic impacts of the analysed climate phenomena and adaptation measures. Integrated economic modelling approaches are generally in a position to map corresponding effects appropriately. However, so far, they have been applied much less frequently to assess climate adaptation measures. Based on a literature review of current integrated climate adaptation studies, GWS develops theoretical proposals for the further development of corresponding simulation approaches. Specific implementation possibilities are then examined in selected case studies by means of practical applications of the GWS simulation models PANTA RHEI and GINFORS.
The overall research approach of the project puts heavy emphasis to the concept of co-production of knowledge: Impact chains (ICs) will be developed in order to structure and evaluate the impact factors analysed in individual case studies. ICs are based on a conceptual model consisting of risk components according to the IPCC AR5 concept (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and underlying factors. The systematic visualisation of the interaction of these risk components as ICs facilitates a structured discussion of main causalities considered within the respective case studies (within the project team as well as with other stakeholders).
UNCHAIN is part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by the JPI Climate and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR/BMBF (D), AEI (ES) and ANR (FR) and co-financed by the European Union (funding code 776608). The project is managed by the West Norwegian Research Institute (WNRI, Sogndal) & Ramboll France (TEC, Aix en Provence) in collaboration with eight European partners.
The development of the bioeconomy is closely linked to national and international sustainability goals. As a major importer of agricultural and forestry products, the EU must also take into account the global impact of its own actions in policy-making. Conflicts of interest are foreseeable if expected developments in different areas are superimposed. Data sets and models that can capture these conflicting objectives still have various weaknesses. BEST uses two global macro models based on different data sets and theoretical backgrounds. They are supplemented by a detailed partial model that records production, trade and demand of individual product groups of the bioeconomy. Global land-use change and the effectiveness of land-use governance are also considered.
On this basis, the following questions are examined in detail:
1. What potential development paths are there for the bioeconomy in the EU in the medium term (2030) with regard to the regional and global achievement of SDGs and expectations in different areas of use and
in the long term (2050/60) against the background of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and climate objectives?
2. What contributions and what conflicts of objectives for the achievement of the socio-economic and environmental SDGs (2, 6–9 and 12–15) in Europe and worldwide result from these development paths?
3. What are the impacts of individual isolated national policies (including the EU) on the promotion and regulation of bioeconomy versus coordinated global mechanisms? What are the opportunities and
limitations to steer the development of a sustainable bioeconomy that ensures the highest possible degree of target achievement? The project is divided into 5 work packages. Two workshops are planned for the
exchange with national and international experts.
The progress of the energy transition is accompanied by a comprehensive monitoring process. The annual monitoring reports focus on the ex-post analysis of the latest developments. The monitoring of energy transition aims to build as much as possible on statistical data and surveys conducted by official institutions. However, an independent reporting system has developed since 2004, particularly on the topics of investment, growth and employment through renewable energies, that has recently been extended to all aspects of the energy system transformation.
The energy transition entails further economic changes which are usually not represented in the official statistics as they require a cross-sectional view of existing classifications and statistics. One example is imports of fossil fuels, which are declining significantly due to the expansion of renewable energies and increasing energy efficiency. Against this background, the project serves to update the relevant economic indicators of energy transition annually. There is also a need for further research into some indicators.
Climate change has a substantial impact on economic growth and a country’s development. This increases the need for reliable and viable approaches to assessing the impact of climate risks and potential adaptation scenarios.
The project consortium will support the pilot countries (Georgia, Kazakhstan and Vietnam) in (i) expanding their model-building capacities with regard to the integration of climate change into economic models, (ii) integrating the results into the political (climate change adaptation) process and (iii) strengthening international cooperation between governments, international organisations and in development cooperation.
The accompanying scientific research project "BEniVer" comprehensively analyses the development of alternative fuels. The aim is to network the 15 technical research projects of the funding initiative with more than 100 participating research groups and industrial partners, to exploit synergy potentials and to make the project results comparable. The project focuses on interdisciplinary analyses of technical, environmental, economic, and social impacts.
The accompanying research is conducted by six research institutions under the direction of the German Aerospace Center on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. In particular, GWS will work on the industrial and macroeconomic evaluation of various options.
The aim of this research project is to analyse the impacts of target species, climate policy implementation and international cooperation within the framework of the Paris Climate Change Agreement and the currently available national reduction contributions (Nationally determined contributions - NDCs) as well as within the framework of possible and necessary increases in ambition to achieve long-term climate protection goals (1.5°C).
The analyses will focus on international interrelations that are discussed in the context of the European Emissions Trading System under the heading of carbon leakage. By analysing given scenarios with different models (GEM-E3 and GINFORS_E), the project should also provide essential information on the "influencing factor model".
The project will be conducted by GWS together with E3-Modelling and Prof. Andreas Löschel for the German Enviroment Agency until mid 2021.
What are the consequences for the labour market if measures are taken to prevent from climate change and/or to adapt to climate change?" This is the central question to be answered within a project - commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection in Austria. Various climate policy measures (e.g. energy-efficient building refurbishment, switch to public transport) are analysed with regard to their impact on labour demand and CO2 savings. The e3.at (economy-energy-environment) model for Austria of the GWS is used to calculate the scenarios and to quantify the (socio-)economic, energetic and environmental consequences up to the year 2030.
The project is carried out jointly with Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) from Austria.
The political debate on sustainable energy supply is currently narrowing largely to a climate protection at justifiable costs for citizens and industry discussion. With this focus, numerous sustainability aspects such as resource requirements, social acceptance or emissions in the lifecycle of new technologies are ignored which the National Strategy of the Federal Government should bear in mind, striving for a transformation towards a sustainable energy system.
The main objective of the project is therefore the creation of a new generic modeling and evaluation environment for energy scenarios in which the technical-structural development paths of the energy system are analyzed, evaluated and multicriterially optimized on the basis of various economic, societal and environmentally relevant model-based targets.
The project explores and develops scientific basis for a systemic monitoring and modelling of the bioeconomy (BE) in Germany. The three year project, led by University of Kassel, is sponsored by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Detailed information can be found here.
The project SOCLIMPACT aims at defining climate change impact-chains and low carbon transition pathways in European islands for 2050 and beyond, and analyzing their corresponding macro-economic and non-market consequences for Europe.
Firstly, climate impact projections for islands will be developed. The project will take into account the relationship between CC and biophysical impacts, according to each island’s specificities and vulnerability indicators. Secondly, the assessment of the socio-economic impacts in four key areas of the EU Blue Economy (aquaculture, coastal and maritime tourism, fisheries and maritime transport) will be done.
Finally, the project will rank and map low carbon and adaptation solutions, according to each island´s particularities and CC scenarios.
1. To develop a thorough understanding on how climate change will affect the EU islands, given their specific vulnerability compared to continental Europe.
2. To provide consolidated data and knowledge with a cross-sectorial perspective on the socio-economic costs of different climate change scenarios for 2050 and beyond, for EU islands and the spill-over effects on the EU Blue Economy.
3. To validate a new methodology for the estimation of the economic value of non-market consequences of CC as well as the non-market benefits of climate mitigation and adaptation actions for Europe.
4. To identify and rank the more appropriate low-carbon transition pathways and risk management strategies for each EU Island, according to different climate change scenarios.
5. To deliver, through innovative technological support tools, downscaled recommendations to policy makers and practitioners in order to foster the desired transition.