The German Savings Bank Association and publishing house receive a quarterly update of the sectoral forecast. The forecast is update in the context of current economic developments.
The German Savings Bank Association and publishing house uses for its information platform regularly updated forecasts of turnover and cost items on a highly disaggregated level of industrial classification (NACE-2008). The aim is to validate the developments of single industries in the current economic situation.
GenDis investigates the social situation, occupational mobility and occupational motivation of service workers producing public goods. Particular attention is paid to occupations in which contradictions between the relevance to the common good and working conditions are commonplace or in which personnel bottlenecks are predicted. The project aims to find out under which conditions people of working age are also prepared in the future to engage professionally in socially necessary services (e.g. health, security, education).
The Sociological Research Institute Göttingen (SOFI) is leading the project, evaluating survey and process data and carrying out qualitative analyses. Scientific cooperation partners in the project are the BIBB (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training) and the GWS.
Climate change has a substantial impact on economic growth and a country’s development. This increases the need for reliable and viable approaches to assessing the impact of climate risks and potential adaptation scenarios.
The project consortium will support the pilot countries (Georgia, Kazakhstan and Vietnam) in (i) expanding their model-building capacities with regard to the integration of climate change into economic models, (ii) integrating the results into the political (climate change adaptation) process and (iii) strengthening international cooperation between governments, international organisations and in development cooperation.
In 2006, the QuBe-project group -- consisting of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB), Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Information Technology (FIT) and Institute of Economic Research (GWS) -- was formed with the aim to adequately address future qualification and occupational requirements. A unique system of two projection modules (IAB / INFORGE and BIBB / FIT) that are based on a sophisticated labour-specific dataset allow for balancing labour demand and supply on the national as well as on the regional level. To perpetuate the collaboration with regard to content and methodology, the cooperation has now been approved with a frame contract. The update and further development of the projection model IAB / INFORGE and up to three simulations per year form the bases of the prolonged contract. The specification of the simulation and methodological advancement are subject to close consultation with the IAB.
Als Teil der QuBe-Kooperation konzentriert sich das BIBB_QuBe-Projekt auf die Modellierung des zukünftigen Angebots von Erwerbspersonen bis zum Jahr 2035. Dabei wird sowohl nach Altersgruppen, Geschlecht, Ausbildungsstatus, Qualifikationsniveau und erlerntem Beruf differenziert als auch nach Regionen. Das Arbeitsangebot wird dabei nicht nur in Köpfen, sondern auch in Stunden (Arbeitsvolumenpotenzial) ausgewiesen.
Das zugrundeliegende Analyseinstrument ist das Modell QINFORGE, welches den berufsspezifischen Bedarf an Arbeitskräften sowohl nach der Anzahl der Erwerbstätigen als auch nach den benötigten Stunden ermittelt. Darauf aufbauend ist es möglich, das ermittelte Arbeitsangebot der Arbeitsnachfrage nach einzelnen Berufsgruppen gegenüberzustellen. Ziel ist es, mögliche Engpässe bei Berufsgruppen offenzulegen.
What are the consequences for the labour market if measures are taken to prevent from climate change and/or to adapt to climate change?" This is the central question to be answered within a project - commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection in Austria. Various climate policy measures (e.g. energy-efficient building refurbishment, switch to public transport) are analysed with regard to their impact on labour demand and CO2 savings. The e3.at (economy-energy-environment) model for Austria of the GWS is used to calculate the scenarios and to quantify the (socio-)economic, energetic and environmental consequences up to the year 2030.
The project is carried out jointly with Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) from Austria.
For the Chamber of Industry and Commerce North Westphalia and the Chamber of Crafts and Skilled Trades Münster, GWS investigates the quantitative and qualitative demand for commercial space in the Emscher-Lippe region. It deals with the demand of companies and businesses already resident in the district and those willing to settle in the cities of Bottrop and Gelsenkirchen, the district of Recklinghausen and the associated municipalities.
GWS is implementing the study in four individual modules within a timeframe of six months. In the first three modules, existing secondary data will be evaluated and primary data will be collected and analysed by means of its own surveys and interviews in order to determine the quantitative and qualitative space requirements. In the fourth module, the results are compiled in writing and formulated as a political demand.
Innerhalb dieser Untersuchung wird die Entwicklung der Branchen der Verwaltungs-Berufsgenossenschaft (VBG) auf Grundlage der VBG-Daten und der QuBe-Projektionen vorausberechnet, um zukünftige Versichertenzahlen der VBG abzuschätzen und mögliche Risiken zu identifizieren. Die Prognose berücksichtigt dabei Veränderungen in der Arbeitswelt, wie sie sich bspw. durch die Digitalisierung und den demografischen Wandel ergeben und erlaubt eine regionale Betrachtung. Zudem ist die Fragestellung angeschlossen, wie sich das Arbeits- und Wegeunfallrisiko aufgrund des Wandels auf dem Arbeitsmarkt entwickeln wird. Unter Berücksichtigung der BIBB/BAuA-Erwerbstätigenbefragung werden branchen- und berufsspezifische Gesundheitsgefahren herausgearbeitet und projiziert. Mit den Daten des Linked Personnel Panels werden außerdem die Entwicklungen der Entgrenzung der Arbeit untersucht. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse und Projektionen sollen branchenspezifische Handlungsempfehlungen der VBG ermöglichen.
The QuBe project team (www.qube-projekt.de) has been commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) to develop an analytic tool that provides a reliable assessment of the future development of both the demand for skilled worker and the available supply. This analytical instrument is intended to identify demographic, qualificational and regional mismatches in the labour market at an early stage and to point out spheres of activity. The effects of institutional, operational and societal change are additionally determined by scenario calculations.
Methodologically, the project is based on the macroeconometric input-output model INFORGE, which was extended to include a labour market model for the QINFORGE model. This labour market module differentiates according to occupations, qualifications, requirements and in future also according to competences. Not only the results of the population projection of the IAB and the educational model of the BIBB are included, but also data sets such as the National Accounts (VGR), the Microcensus and the employment history are linked to form a consistent data set.
Milestones:
In 2018, the first BMAS-forecast and a BMAS-scenario will be available for the national level.
In 2019, the results from 2018 will be regionalized and reported for 50 labour market regions.
In 2020, an update of the BMAS-forecast and two supplementary BMAS scenarios at national and regional level will follow.